Decision Review™ · Executive Brief
Geofizyka Toruń
Open Hole Imaging Package
Prepared for A. Morgan, VP Commercial · RFQ value £1.20M · Decision window closes 04 Jul 2026
Decision Confidence™
Confidence has held above the 80% threshold for 36 hours. Top contributors: technical capability (+22), commercial fit (+19).
Decivra Recommendation
k‑core v4.23 conditions outstandingAuthorise commercial to issue a conditional offer once the three required actions are confirmed. Re‑route to executive review on 03 Jul to validate hedge and tool string before final sign‑off.
Section 01
Executive Summary
Geofizyka Toruń is requesting a full open‑hole imaging package for a three‑well exploration programme in the Polish Lowlands. The technical scope aligns closely with two previously delivered engagements (Kromolin‑3, 2024 and Wronów‑2, 2025), both of which closed within margin targets.
Commercial terms are within policy, but the customer has a documented pattern of mid‑project scope expansion that historically eroded margin by 3–5pp. We recommend proceeding with a change‑order ceiling and a confirmed secondary tool string. Treasury review is required for the PLN‑denominated component (32% of cost base).
Section 02
Decision DNA™
Decision DNA™ shows the underlying commercial, technical, financial, legal and operational risk profile of this decision. Decision Confidence™ shows how certain Decivra is based on the available evidence.
Section 03
Top Risks
Ranked by expected margin impact across the engagement.
Last two engagements required >20% mid-project scope expansion. Margin erosion 3–5pp observed.
Backup kit committed to Aker BP in same window. Procurement to confirm alternative by 02 Jul.
32% of cost base settled in PLN with no active hedge. Treasury sign‑off required.
Master service terms amendment awaiting counsel review — draft returned 26 Jun.
Section 06
Decision Replay™
Every step the Decivra engine took, fully auditable.
- 24 Jun · 09:14·SystemRFQ ingested · 142 documents parsed by k‑core
- 24 Jun · 09:22·Knowledge GraphAuto‑matched to 3 historical projects · similarity 81%
- 25 Jun · 11:08·Margin EngineMargin model run · target 18.4% achievable
- 26 Jun · 16:41·Risk Engine2 risks flagged · customer scope volatility, PLN exposure
- 27 Jun · 08:30·Decivra Decision EngineDraft recommendation generated · 82% confidence
- Today · 14:02·WorkflowRouted to A. Morgan for executive review
Section 07
What changes the decision?
Live simulation. Adjust the levers to see how Decivra re-scores the recommendation.
Simulated outcome
Simulation only · does not modify the committed Decision Review™.
Section 08
Ask Decivra
Structured explanations grounded in this Decision Review™. Answers cite the same inputs as the recommendation.
The engagement is technically well-matched (92/100) with strong commercial fit (88/100), but Geofizyka has a documented pattern of mid-project scope expansion and 32% of the cost base sits in PLN. Proceeding is defensible only with a change-order ceiling, treasury hedge review, and secondary tool string confirmation.
Section 04
Required Actions
- A01Add change-order ceiling clauseP. Novak·Legal·due 01 Jul
- A02Confirm secondary tool string availabilityR. Chen·Operations·due 02 Jul
- A03Run treasury hedge review for PLN exposureS. Okafor·Treasury·due 03 Jul
- A04Schedule executive sign-off callA. Morgan·Commercial·due 04 Jul
Section 05
Missing Information
- Updated HSE bridging document (rev 4.2)outstanding 5 days
- Final logistics quote — Maersk Drilling Logisticsoutstanding 3 days
- Confirmation of crew rotation pattern for Q3outstanding 2 days
- Secondary tool string availability windowoutstanding 4 days
Audit trail
Agent Review Panel
Specialist review lanes
Each agent reviews the decision from its own discipline. Findings and escalations are auditable.
- Commercial Agent
Margin target achievable; scope volatility needs a change-order ceiling.
Conf.82% - Engineering Agent
Tool string capability confirmed; secondary string availability unverified.
Conf.78% - Finance AgentEscalation
32% PLN exposure — treasury hedge review required.
Conf.74% - Legal AgentEscalation
MSA amendment pending; liability clause under counsel review.
Conf.68% - Operations Agent
Mobilisation window feasible with 4-week lead on wireline unit.
Conf.85% - Knowledge Agent
Three prior Geofizyka projects matched via Decision Replay™.
Conf.88% - Challenge AgentEscalation
Recommendation depends on unverified secondary tool string.
Conf.62% - Chief Decision Agent
Proceed with Conditions — three required actions must clear before approval.
Conf.82%
Challenge Agent Summary
Decivra recommends proceeding with conditions, but this depends on confirming secondary tool string availability, adding a change-order ceiling, and completing PLN exposure review. Without these, the recommendation should fall to Review Required.
- Hidden assumption: secondary tool string is available in window
- Failure path: mid-contract scope expansion beyond ceiling
- Unverified dependency: treasury hedge cover for PLN exposure
- Evidence gap: two Wronów-2 closeout clauses not yet ingested
Most Likely Failure Scenario
- Failure path
- Scope expands mid-project, secondary tool string is unavailable, and PLN exposure erodes margin.
- Trigger
- Customer requests additional imaging runs after contract award.
- Business impact
- Margin falls 4.1pp below target and the delivery window slips by 3 weeks.
- Prevention
- Add change-order ceiling, confirm backup tool string, and complete treasury hedge review before approval.
Proceed with Conditions
Action Tracker
0 of 4 conditions cleared before executive sign-off.
- PendingConfirm secondary tool string availabilityR. Chen · due 02 Jul · OPS-11
- PendingAdd change-order ceiling clauseP. Novak · due 03 Jul · MSA §4.7
- PendingComplete PLN treasury hedge reviewS. Okafor · due 03 Jul · Treasury §4.2.1
- PendingExecutive commercial sign-offA. Morgan · due 04 Jul · DEC-01
Cross-functional
Departmental Risk Alignment
How each discipline sees the same decision. Decivra unifies context above ERP, CRM, BI, documents and expertise.
| Department | Risk raised | Severity | Required action | Owner | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Commercial | Scope volatility | High | Add change-order ceiling | A. Morgan | Pending |
| Technical / Engineering | Tool availability | Medium | Confirm backup string | R. Chen | Pending |
| Finance | PLN exposure | Medium | Run hedge review | S. Okafor | Pending |
| Legal | MSA amendment | High | Complete counsel review | P. Novak | In progress |
| Operations | Mobilisation window | Low | Confirm crew schedule | J. Larsen | Cleared |
| Supply Chain | Vendor lead time | Low | Baseline capacity slot | M. Patel | Cleared |
Decision Replay™ Project Matcher
Decivra does not just search old files. It compares current decisions with actual outcomes.
- Kromolin-3 Open Hole ImagingDelivered on plan · Margin protected · 19.2%Match81%LessonChange-order ceiling held scope inside plan.Impact on recommendationSupports the current conditions-based recommendation.
- Wronów-2 Imaging + LWDScope creep · Margin erosion · −3.7ppMatch74%LessonPost-award scope expanded 22% without ceiling.Impact on recommendationReinforces the required change-order ceiling.
- Płock Basin Wireline ProgrammeDelivered on plan · On-time · margin at planMatch69%LessonTreasury hedge cover protected PLN exposure.Impact on recommendationSupports the treasury hedge condition.
82% confidence means Decivra found enough matching evidence, previous project history and policy alignment to support the recommendation, but three conditions remain unresolved. The final decision remains with accountable business leaders.
Data Privacy Guardrails
Each customer workspace is isolated. Uploaded RFQs, pricing sheets, contracts and project documents are processed inside the customer’s dedicated environment and are not used to train external language models.
Executive sign-off
Two endorsements received · one signature outstanding
By committing, you attest that the Decision DNA™ inputs, risk register and required actions have been reviewed in line with Decivra Intelligence governance policy KIG-0042.
Illustrative demo data · not real customer data